A tale of two employees

Posted by Christie Malry on June 30, 2011 at 12:53 pm

Today, 30 June, lots of public sector workers are going on strike, in a protest over proposals to make public sector workers pay more for their final salary pension schemes.

So let's think about two workers. One, Miss Aubergine, is a newly qualified teacher, on £25,000 per year. The other, Mr Banana, is a "fat cat" on £100,000 per year.

Miss Aubergine's scheme asks currently that she pay 6.1% toward her pension. Under the government's proposals, she will pay another 3%. If we use this latter figure, she will contribute £2,275 per year.

Meanwhile, Mr Banana receives the average defined contribution amount from his employer, 6.1%. He contributes the same amount himself. So his pension pot is receiving £12,200, over 5 times Miss Aubergine's contribution.

What do they get in return? Miss Aubergine gets 1/60th of her final salary, currently £416.67. Meantime, Mr Banana must buy an annuity on the open market. At current levels, a pension with the same inflation protection as Miss Aubergine's would require an annuity rate of 2.9%. In other words his pot would buy him a pension of £353.80, almost 10% less than Miss Aubergine's pension.

Typically, Miss Aubergine would enjoy lots of public sympathy and Mr Banana none. But can it really be right that her incredibly generous pension rights aren't recognised in a transparent and honest way?

And also spare a thought for Mr Coconut, a private sector worker on the minimum wage on the NEST contribution rates of 4%+4%. Should we really continue to tax his income to protect Miss Aubergine's current pension arrangements?

The fairness of public sector pensions

Posted by Christie Malry on June 19, 2011 at 9:29 am

This post is based on an e-mail I sent to those nice folk at FullFact to help them factcheck government and union claims about public sector pensions.

This week has seen the government and the unions trade blows over the affordability of public sector pensions. Francis Maude claimed that a civil servant who retires after 40 years service on the average salary of £23,000 will have a pension pot worth £500,000. In return, the unions said that the average public sector pension is £4,200 per year and that the fortunate civil servant would need to live to 104 for Maude's claim to be true.

So who is right? It's important to understand that there are two broad types of pension: defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC). DB schemes define the benefit the employee will get from the scheme. Historically, this has been a function of the number of years served and the salary on retirement. So, if the scheme promises you 1/80th of your final salary, and you end up retiring on £50,000 after 40 years then you'll get a pension of £25,000pa. Typically there are lots of other benefits, such as rights for spouses and inflation protection. There is no "pot" in the employee's name. The employer makes promises and, in the case of a private sector employer, pays amounts into a fund to support the future obligations.

DC schemes don't do any of this. Instead, the employer defines the amount it will contribute to the employee's pension. A pot of money accrues in the employee's own name. On retirement, the employee must convert this into an annual pension by buying an annuity.

From this, you'll be able to understand that Maude's use of the term "pot" is a little bit confusing. There is no pot. However, you can calculate what size of pot you would need to purchase an equivalent pension under a DC basis. This is, after all, how most private sector workers will save for their own pensions.

The civil service scheme looks like it's based on 80ths. You also get a lump sum of 3x annual pension tax free. So our civil servant on £23,000 will get an annual pension of £11,500 plus the lump sum. Annuity rates vary, but at the moment inflation protected annuities with spouse rights work out at about 3.0% of your lump sum amount (ie £100,000 would buy you £3,000pa). The FSA annuity tables suggest that an annuity with equivalent rights to the civil service scheme would be 2.9%. So, to buy an income of £11,500, you'd need a pot of £396,500 (11,500 / 0.029). Add on the three years lump sum and you get a total pot of £431,000. That's certainly close to what Maude said (and my calculation is sensitive to the precise annuity rate used) but perhaps is a touch overegged.

Now what of the union claims? The unions are incredibly stupid to claim that an employee would need to live to 105 to get value of £500,000. Because they ignore the time value of money and the cast-iron inflation protection that public sector pensions provide. And they're being extremely deceitful to use the average public sector pension figure. That includes all pensions in payment, including people who only worked for the public sector for a short period of time.

Instead, the right way to look at is to decide whether it's feasible for a private sector worker on a lifetime wage of £23,000 to build up a pot of £431,000 over their lifetime. If it's not, then we must rethink how we allow all workers, not just those who work in the public sector, to build up sufficient pensions. It's certainly unsupportable to tax private sector workers heavily merely to hand that cash over to the gold-plated pension plans of the public sector.

In which Ritchie admits I was right and he was wrong

Posted by Christie Malry on June 14, 2011 at 11:17 pm

The tax gap is the difference between the tax that should be paid in this country and the tax that is actually paid. I say that figure is £120 billion. Now, admittedly, £25 billion of that is tax paid late, so we can only get that back once. But the rest, which is £95 billion is an annual figure.

Do you see what he's done there?

He's admitted that the 'late paid tax' element of his tax gap calculation is a one-off, not an annual cost. And that's exactly what I pointed out as Flaw 3 in my criticism of his tax gap calculation last year.

So, having got him to admit that £120bn is wrong and that his revised estimate of the annual gap is £95bn, can we get him to admit his remaining errors?

Worstall on accounting for marketing costs

Posted by Christie Malry on June 8, 2011 at 1:21 pm

I sometimes (inadvisably) dabble in economics, so it's only fair that Worstall should have a go at accounting:

An online marketing company decides to treat online marketing as [  ] not an expense.

That's, umm, pretty good really.

Actually, irony aside, there are some reasons to be sympathetic to Groupon. Broadly, there are two approaches to accounting for your own marketing costs: you can either expense it as soon as you spend it, or you can capitalise it and amortise it over some future period.

Businesses, in their management accounts, probably think more like the latter. They are running marketing campaigns today in order to generate sales in the future. Otherwise, let's face it, they wouldn't do it.

Some marketing is very successful. Well, of course, otherwise they wouldn't do it. I can tell you that there's a website called confused.com because I hear young people saying they're "confused.com" (although God knows what you'd find there). I know that there's a series of advertisements with meerkats in them (again, dunno what for). And I can attribute "calm down, dear" to Michael Winner, not David Cameron's sexism. In all of these cases, various companies have - rather unsuccessfully in my case - tried to build their brand familiarity through marketing expenditure.

Accounting standards take a different approach. Because standards are based largely around balance sheet concepts, they seek to understand what asset might have been created once a campaign has aired. An asset in Accountingspeak is "rights or other access to future economic benefits as a result of past actions or events". Obviously, marketing provides no rights over your customers' money. They might buy, or they might go elsewhere. Even if you could argue for the creation of an asset, you would never be able to measure it with sufficient accuracy. So standards say to write the whole lot off.

This is intellectually coherent. But it does mean you've got a load of future sales that don't have the "full" cost of sales against them, because you wrote some of it off earlier.

The accounting standards approach also has the advantage in that, should a campaign fail, you've already written the costs off so there's no need to take further unforeseen expenses through the P&L.

Country by country reporting is a stupid and expensive conceit

Posted by Christie Malry on June 7, 2011 at 9:26 pm

As anyone who has read Ritchie's blog for even a short while will know, Ritchie is the inventer of country by country reporting (we'll call it CBC reporting for short). CBC reporting, in brief, is the idea that companies should be forced to disclose certain types of information on a country-by-country basis, rather than on the current consolidated basis 1.

Ritchie's idea seeks to address the concern that companies are able to abuse their cross-border existence to determine where to make profits, in order to make profits in low tax jurisdictions. Ritchie suggests that CBC reporting will help tax campaigners, such as him, to identify transfer pricing abuse and other forms of tax avoidance more easily. He wants CBC reporting disclosures, which in some countries will be exceptionally voluminous, to be included within the scope of the group external audit. This is likely to be very expensive.

In order to get an idea of how it might work, today he blogged about Microsoft

... the bulk of Microsoft’s $50.2bn cash mountain is held outside the US. This [is] the result of the SEC’s questioning about what it called a “disproportionate” share of Microsoft’s profits that come from certain overseas countries. Some 62 per cent of the company’s international income came from those countries last year, even though they only accounted for 42 per cent of international revenues.

In a detailed response, the software company said it had benefited partly from a policy of channelling sales through low-tax regional centres in Ireland, Singapore and Puerto Rico.

This had resulted in “a higher mix of earnings taxed at lower rates in foreign jurisdictions”, the company revealed in a footnote to its recent quarterly report with the SEC, which was included as a result of the regulatory prodding.

I was involved in the first revelation of this practice in the Wall Street Journal in 2005.

Of course Microsoft maintains that all it is doing is legal. As the SEC suggests though, it is at least questionable. In my opinion it’s unethical. It is, I think, tax haven abuse to deliberately undermine the payment of taxes in countries where Microsoft really makes its profits, like the UK.

Such practice would, of course, have become apparent much sooner if we had had country-by-country reporting in operation. The need for this becomes more obvious every day. Country-by-country reporting reveals where a company makes its profits and pays its taxes.

Ritchie's hypothesis is that he would be able to look at Microsoft's CBC reporting and ascertain that they are making lower profit margins in some countries than in others. And from that he says he will be able to conclude whether Microsoft is engaging in tax avoidance. Although, you'll notice he's already concluded that they are:

In my opinion it’s unethical. It is, I think, tax haven abuse to deliberately undermine the payment of taxes in countries where Microsoft really makes its profits, like the UK.

He's talking Ritchiebollocks. You cannot deduce any such thing from CBC reporting. It's a stupid idea that simply cannot provide any of the information about tax avoidance Ritchie seems to think it will. And in failing to do this it will cost a small fortune.

In order to demonstrate this, let's consider a real life example of a real company: GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Their Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Witty, was on Radio 4 the other day talking about how his company is set to partner with the Gates Foundation (see this post for a totally disgusting example of Ritchie's putrid views with regard to Bill Gates's extraordinarily generous charitable work) in providing low cost vaccines to the Third World.  Witty said that his company would provide vaccines at cost to the Third World, paid for by the Gates Foundation. But  in order that his company can do this, he needs rich countries to pay higher prices for the drugs that they buy.

What would this mean for CBC reporting? The disclosures would show GSK making sales in many countries, but making very low profits in the third world. Can we trust Ritchie to understand the business reasons for these differential margins? Based on his historical business analysis as evidenced on his blog, I do not believe we can.

He would be unable to resist painting this as 'evidence' of GSK's avoiding tax in the third world and 'transferring profits' to lower tax countries. It's simply a conceit that he would be able to interpret the information in any meaningful way when it's painfully obvious that he cannot.

This fatally undermines the only justification that Ritchie has made for CBC reporting. Because it fundamentally fails to deliver the benefit it purports to deliver, and because it would be extraordinarily expensive to implement, especially if disclosed on an audited basis, CBC reporting must be resisted by politicians and regulators. The IASB is approaching it cautiously; the European Parliament is unfortunately charging ahead toward it. The European Parliament must understand that it simply does not have the necessary accounting and business expertise to be regulating in this area.

Notes:

  1. supplemented by some information on a segmental, not country-by-country, basis

Too many accountants?

Posted by Christie Malry on June 3, 2011 at 10:13 am

Over at the ICAEW LinkedIn group (private group, so no link, sorry), a battle has been raging over a simple enough question: are there too many chartered accountants? Paul Stankiewicz observes:

I was under the impression that at present there are too many qualified accountants out in the market place alot (sic) searching around for ever fewer jobs.

At the time of this post there are over 220 comments. And not one has had the courage or insight to tell Paul that he's an idiot. This is just the lump of labour fallacy dressed up slightly in chartered accountancy clothes.

You see, there is no limit to the work chartered accountants can do. What's causing pressure on their earnings isn't their own numbers. It's the fact that lots of companies no longer need audits and that grubby unqualified accountants are able to do great swathes of work that, once upon a time, only chartered accountants would have done.

In respect of the first, this is generally speaking, A Good Thing. No point forcing companies to buy something they don't really need, is there?

In respect of the second,  companies are deciding to use unqualified people for their accounts preparation, tax compliance and a raft of other low level work. Shouldn't they be able to decide what is value for money?

As a result of these factors, even if ICAEW closed their gates today and never qualified another accountant, there would still be huge downward pressure on earnings.

The correct response should be to find new lines of work that, with your greater professional experience and knowledge, other folk simply can't do. Weeping about the halcyon days of the past and demanding protectionism is, by contrast, idiotic. Increased competition is here to stay, and not even chartered accountants should expect to be immune.