UKuncut's credibility gets blown pie high

Posted by Christie Malry on July 19, 2011 at 11:18 pm

19 July, as all good Father Ted fans know, is the date that Galway was liberated from Indians, Marathon became Snickers, and the Ice Age ended. And it's this auspicious date that the House of Commons Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee chose to take evidence from Rupert Murdoch over the phone hacking debacle. At the heart of their enquiry was the idea that, as Chairman and CEO of News Corp, Murdoch is ultimately responsible for everything that takes place in News Corp. In his evidence, Murdoch sought to play down this notion, pointing out that News of the World is a tiny part of his enormous multinational business.

How ironic, then, that Jonathan May-Bowles, a founding figure in the UKuncut movement should decide to pull a decidedly UKuncut-style stunt at the hearing and attempt to land a shaving foam pie in Murdoch's face. In doing so, he has allowed Murdoch to be portrayed as an elderly victim of violence, instead of the focus being on his control over some of the nether reaches of his empire.

Even more extraordinary has been the subsequent response from UKuncut and its supporters. The @UKuncut account rushed to deny that it was a UKuncut campaign, despite the close similarity to their techniques and the involvement of one of their founders. Having initially said that they had found the pie-throwing 'funny', they deleted the tweet. Their supporters also sought, in time-honoured UKuncut style, to deny that this was a UKuncut action. Incredibly, some even tried to argue that, because Murdoch wasn't hurt, this wasn't a violent incident.

People have argued before that, in order to be credible, UKuncut must accept its violent fringes and both apologise and deal with them. It shows no signs of doing anything of the sort. For as long as UKuncut denies any involvement in violent protest, despite the pretty clear evidence too the contrary, it can have no credibility in the UK political scene. And it cannot expect businessmen such as Sir Phillip Green and Rupert Murdoch to exercise control over the minutiae of their global empires while it itself seems both unable and unwilling to address the actions undertaken by its supporters (and close supporters at that) at the events it organises and in the public sphere.

The use of discretion in law enforcement

Posted by Christie Malry on July 19, 2011 at 1:19 pm

What, intrinsically, is the difference between the CPS deciding not to prosecute the Fortnum & Mason 145, and HMRC deciding to settle with Vodafone over its Luxembourg tax affairs?

Both are examples of pragmatic management decisions overriding a narrow interpretation of the law. So how can ukuncut accept one without admitting the other?

Answers on a postcard, please.

Nudgeberger meets the Big Society

Posted by Christie Malry on July 17, 2011 at 10:12 am

The Guardian has a report today on Julia Neuberger, who has been heading up an enquiry into 'nudge':

The theory – outlined by Richard Thaler, professor of economics and behavioural science at Chicago Graduate School of Business, and by Harvard law professor Cass Sunstein – has been eagerly adopted by David Cameron, who set up a behavioural insight team last October. The unit was charged with introducing nudge to the "big society" or, as the coalition agreement puts it, "finding intelligent ways to encourage people to make better choices for themselves".

Nudge is a theory that says government can deliver its policy objectives by 'nudging' people into doing what government considers to be the right thing using an alternative set of interventions, instead of just mandating, banning or taxing things.

The Big Society is a theory that says that people can support each other without the need for government support and intervention.

Just what on earth are these two concepts doing together? One is a recipe for more government, the other for less. They're really nothing to do with each other.

Telegraph subs, part 94

Posted by Christie Malry on July 16, 2011 at 12:55 pm

Hotlaim?

 

Ritchie on the Edge

Posted by Christie Malry on July 15, 2011 at 8:52 pm

The Edge, the peculiarly-monikered guitarist for U2, claims that Ireland is happy with U2's tax affairs. This does not meet with Ritchie's approval:

Oh dear, he still doesn’t get it, does he?

Legality is not morality. U2s arrangements may be legal – in which case the Irish government may accept them. But they stink when this band demands action for the poorest countries in the world who suffer from abuse orchestrated through structures similar to those this band uses.

Oh dear, Ritchie doesn't get it, does he?

There are three levels of tax behaviour. In decreasing levels of turpitude, they are: tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax compliance.

Now, we know that U2 aren't evading tax. Because, if they were, the Irish government would have come down on them like a tonne of bricks. And The Edge certainly could not claim that the Irish government had no problem with their tax affairs.

We also know that they're not avoiding tax. Because, if they were, The Edge would not be able to claim that the Irish government had no problem with their tax affairs. Ireland, in common with most advanced economies, has anti-avoidance rules which kick in when individuals try to exploit loopholes to their own advantage. At a minimum, we would have seen several tax investigations which, had they failed, would have been followed up with legislative changes to close tax loopholes and increase the government's tax take. 

So, the only remaining option is that U2's tax affairs are tax compliant.

Note that the decision as to whether tax affairs are evasion, avoidance or compliant lies with the tax authorities alone. We do not allow individuals to make this decision on behalf of the tax authority. Parliament sets the laws, the tax authority then decides which circumstances to challenge in the courts, and it's the courts who decide how the tax law should be applied.

So Ritchie can jump up and down all he likes. If the Irish government aren't suing U2 then it's not avoidance: their affairs are compliant.

Information asymmetry and Twitter

Posted by Christie Malry on July 15, 2011 at 12:14 am

A couple of days ago, I wrote a blog post highlighting my concerns over an article written by David Cay Johnston about the tax affairs of News Corp. Now it turns out that the article really was a complete load of bollocks: so bad, in fact that the author has had to retract it completely.  As retractions go, it's an object lesson in how to do it with dignity:

Readers, I apologize. The premise of my debut column for Reuters, on News Corp's taxes, was wrong, 100 percent dead wrong.

Rupert Murdoch's News Corp did not get a $4.8 billion tax refund for the past four years, as I reported. Instead, it paid that much in cash for corporate income taxes for the years 2007 through 2010 while earning pre-tax profits of $10.4 billion.

He concludes (emphasis added):

I often write tart notes at the Romenesko blog for journalists, the Columbia Journalism Review, Nieman Reports and elsewhere about what I consider flawed reporting by others. I lecture to young reporters around the world on the duty of care they need to take with facts and teach how to check and cross check. Until now I have never made a big mistake, but this is a painful reminder that we all put our pants on one leg at a time. The measure of character, I say in my posts and lectures, is whether when an error is found you forthrightly and promptly correct.

Yes, Ritchie, he means you. As it was Ritchie who brought the original article to my attention, I thought it would be worthwhile checking to see how rapidly he had retracted his article based on this one. Well, he hasn't, exactly. Whereas the original article led to a tweet that was itself retweeted several times, he never actually retracted his article. He merely deleted the original text of it and replaced it with a summary of Johnston's retraction. And, critically, he never once tweeted about the error that had been made.

We can refer back to Johnston's "measure of character" and draw instant conclusions about Ritchie's character. We can contrast with another friend of ours, Nick Shaxson, who having jumped enthusiastically on this bandwagon at least had the decency to tweet about the retraction, so his followers get a balanced picture.  Unfortunately Ritchie's approach seems to be more common amongst lefties, with people still retweeting the "-46% tax rate" story today, even after it has been withdrawn by its own author.

The story has gone down well with right wing commentators, as you might expect, with the story making the national newspapers here in the UK. But it highlights the fears about an 'information bubble' in which people find themselves in a self-reinforcing network that supports their own world view, safe from challenge from points of view from people outside their network. On Twitter this is a real problem, with people choosing to follow people who say things they like. But unless those people are prepared to give a balanced view, in which the retraction of false statements are given as much prominence as the original false statement (as they would be in, say, a national newspaper), we are at risk of these falsehoods inadvertently reinforcing erroneous views of the world. Johnston shows us how to do it. The Twitterati have a long way to go to find his level of integrity.

A first look at Whole of Government Accounts

Posted by Christie Malry on July 14, 2011 at 12:00 am

As the political world goes mad over Murdoch, HM Treasury has published its first go at Whole of Government Accounts (WGA). And it's quite an interesting read, especially if you're a sad old accountant like me. Here are some reflections:

  1. As at 31/3/2010, the UK Government had assets of £1.2trn but liabilities of £2.4trn, producing a net liabilities position of £1.2trn. Note that this is not the same as having debts of £1.2trn; not all of these items need to be paid now. Some may never need to be paid at all, such as estimates for medical neglicence costs. But the numbers are big, and they're scary. To the extent that these items do crystallise, they'll be made good from future taxation (!)
  2. The Tax Revenue note 1 includes a line item for "Social security and National Health Service contributions". This is terribly arcane. Both items are now paid out of general taxation, of which National Insurance forms a part. Why have they used this peculiar form of words, instead of just saying "National Insurance"?
  3. There's also an oddity with respect to government employees. Their employer NI and pension contributions are excluded completely 2 on the grounds that they'd only gross up the tax revenue and employee expense lines. But, accepting this to be the right treatment, on what basis does public sector employee costs include notional income tax and employee NI amounts, as they appear to? Both these should also be netted out, because public sector workers are paid from tax; they don't pay income tax or NI on a consolidated basis.
  4. The publicly owned banks are out 3. Technically speaking, this isn't correct, but they've been excluded because the government intends to get rid of them, and excluding them completely is deemed to be the only way to give a true and fair view.
  5. There seems to be no liability for unvested state pensions. In other words, someone who has yet to retire and has been issued with a state pension entitlement letter from NICO won't find a penny in these accounts representing their pension. Strictly speaking this is correct, as government could change the law (as it is planning to do with the state retirement age) to reduce or eliminate the liability. But it makes for uncomfortable reading. The figures, if included, would be very big indeed.
  6. There are no comparatives, so the accounts will certainly be qualified when they're issued in final form by 31 December.

Now, let's deal with some monumental Ritchiebollocks that's been floating around today about WGA:

[WGA] are also blatantly wrong, and so seriously misstated that any auditor must be duty-bound to qualify them as being  a completely unfair view of the state of the government’s finances.

 

The reason for saying this is simple:  it is an absolute rule of accounting that revenue must be recognised as it falls due and any sum not collected must be treated as a bad debt. However, the revenue included in these accounts is the net sum of cash collected relating to the year 2010/11. As such the accounts are stated net of losses to tax evasion, which the Revenue themselves admit might be £35 billion a year, and may be as high as £70 billion a year in my estimate, and they are also stated net of tax avoidance.  The Revenue have admitted they have £25 billion worth of tax avoidance subject to dispute at present, and I believe that this is the sum lost annually for this reason.

 

As a result I contend that the top line of these accounts is understated by at least £95 billion, meaning they are grossly and materially misstated in accounting terms or, in layperson’s terms, they are just a straightforward lie about the true financial state of the government.

Er, so because Ritchie believes that avoidance and evasion total up to £95 billion annually, he's asserting that the revenue line is understated by at least £95 billion. Do you see what he did there?

And, on top of that, he's wrong. Tax avoidance is businesses following the law but in ways that government didn't intend. The only remedy for government is to change the law to make their intentions much more clear. In terms of WGA, the tax revenue line can only include that tax that was legally due given the facts and circumstances as they actually happened. It would be very deceptive to include tax that wasn't legally due, only to then remove it as a cost later down the accounts. He's also wrong in terms of evasion. Tax evasion is a bit like shoplifting. And no retail business in the country grosses up its sales line for items that were shoplifted and then eliminates the profit below the line. It isn't GAAP. It's utter nonsense.

Notes:

  1. Note 3, p.14
  2. Note 5, p.15-16
  3. para 1.14, p.6

Decoding News Corp's negative tax rate

Posted by Christie Malry on July 12, 2011 at 9:25 pm

Via Ritchie, we find an article that sensationally claims to expose how News Corp pays tax on its accounting profits at a rate of -46%. Yep, negative.

There are three main parts that give rise to this:

  • the use of transfer pricing to move profits from high tax jurisdictions to lower tax ones.
  • buying businesses that have brought forward losses that can be utilised.
  • using deferrals.

David Cay Johnston attempts to paint each of these as evidence of gross tax avoidance. Unfortunately, he fails miserably on each account.

Transfer pricing

One is the aggressive use of intra-company transactions that globally allocate costs to locations that impose taxes -- and profits to areas where profits can be earned tax-free.

For that Murdoch can thank laws and treaties that treat multinational corporations much more generously than working stiffs, such as those who make up the audience for his New York Post and for his British tabloids with bare-breasted women. Working stiffs have their taxes taken out of their pay before they get it, while Murdoch gets to profit now and pay taxes by-and-by.

News Corp. has 152 subsidiaries in tax havens, including 62 in the British Virgin Islands and 33 in the Caymans. Among the hundred largest U.S. companies, only Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have more tax haven subsidiaries than News Corp., a 2009 U.S. Government Accountability Office study found.

News Corp. had nearly $7 billion permanently invested offshore in 2009, money on which it does not have to pay taxes unless it brings the money back to the United States. Meanwhile, it can use that money as collateral for loans in the United States, where interest paid is a tax-deductible expense.

Johnston appears to want us to believe that tax authorities have never heard of transfer pricing and are completely powerless to prevent companies moving their profits around at will. In fact, they're very wise to the tricks companies try and play. All transactions between group companies are measured for tax purposes on an arm's length basis. So if Murdoch tries any really funny business between subsidiary companies, the tax authorities will merely stick in the figures he should have used.

Conversely, we can conclude that any transfer of profits between jurisdictions is done with the express blessing of the IRS. Otherwise they would have challenged it.

The last paragraph raises a different point. US companies don't have to pay US taxes on their overseas profits until those profits are remitted to the US. The idea here is to prevent a nasty regime (think Zimbabwe) nicking all your profits but you still getting landed with a big tax bill from Uncle Sam. Local tax will have been paid locally, so the only difference is the margin between local and US corporate income tax. The local tax does form part of the group's overall tax paid.

Purchased losses

Buying companies with tax losses is a second way Murdoch can pocket, rather than pay, taxes. In three deals to acquire American television stations -- in 1985, 1990 and 2001 -- questions were raised about whether Murdoch entities were in compliance with American rules limiting the ownership stakes of foreign investors.

A memo, turned over to the Federal Communications Commission during one of these inquiries, showed that in 1990 Murdoch's advisers were, in the words of Michael Gardner, an outside counsel to News Corp., "in agreement that it is paramount to avoid any corporate restructuring which would potentially invite reexamination of Fox TV's ownership structure" by the FCC.

In 1995, the FCC general counsel, William Kennard, said that a two-year investigation requested by rival NBC and the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) found that "Fox did not clearly or explicitly disclose" News Corp.'s ownership stake in American television stations as required. However, Kennard said this lack of candor was insufficient to require a hearing into whether Fox had intended to deceive the commission.

In contrast to News Corp.'s aggressive tax and regulatory strategies stands The New York Times Company, which in 1993 bought the Boston Globe in a way that did not allow it to deduct its goodwill, as is standard practice today. The Times company has paid a cash tax rate of 71 percent over the last decade, more than twice the statutory corporate income tax rate of 35 percent. That is because while most companies, like News Corp., get to take more generous deductions on their tax accounts than their shareholder accounts, the terms of the Globe deal left the Times company in the opposite position: required to deduct the Globe's intangible values for shareholder accounting, but not allowed to deduct it for tax purposes.

If a business makes a loss, of course it should get tax relief for that loss. The sad fact is that many loss making businesses never make another profit and go bust. For a profitable business like News Corp to acquire these businesses is good news for everyone, as it helps preserve jobs and turns them around and back toward profitability.

It's absolutely right that News Corp should get the benefit of these losses because they're taking the risk. 

The last paragraph is either quaint or laugh-out-loud funny, depending on your mood. The "way that did not allow it to deduct its goodwill" is merger accounting. In the 1990s, the SEC was desperately trying to stop companies from adopting merger accounting - businesses preferred it because they didn't have to set up massive goodwill accounts, which (back then at least) had to be amortised through the profit and loss account, reducing earnings. The very idea that NYT was somehow more virtuous because it adopted merger accounting while News Corp did not is completely bonkers.

Tax deferrals

Third, Murdoch's tax lawyers are expert at maximizing the benefits of deferrals. Incurring a tax today, but paying it by-and-by can be profitable. A dollar of tax deferred for 30 years, and invested at 8 percent real growth while inflation runs 3 percent, is worth more than $10 at the end of the period, while the real value of the tax when it is ultimately paid is just 40 cents.

Last year News Corp. had net future tax assets of $3.3 billion. In the past four years News Corp. has either used up a lot of its tax benefits or had them expire. In 2007 its net tax assets were $5.7 billion.

Hmm, at this point I had to go look up News Corp's 10-K because it was obvious that Johnston was talking complete bollocks. Tax deferrals are a deferred tax liability, not an asset. They represent a tax benefit you've already received (by paying less tax today) but which you will most likely have to pay in the future.

Can we really take a journalist seriously when he can't even tell an asset from a liability?

The point is also a completely stupid one. To adopt Johnston's rhetoric, we render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's. And taxes are based upon taxable profit, not accounting profit. For a variety of excellent, good, not-so-good and virtually fraudulent reasons, our politicians have deemed that various transactions may be treated differently in the tax computation than the accounting standard setters have ruled they must be treated in preparing the accounts. In order that investors can understand how accounting profits relate to tax due, the accounting standards require deferred tax to be established for asset (or liability) carrying values that differ from their taxable values. 

The $3.4bn liability represents the amount by which News Corp has recorded accounting profits on which tax has not yet been paid but which is expected to be paid in the future. That's not their fault. If you want to blame anyone, you should blame the politicians who wrote those concessions into our tax laws.

There's also a classic howler: Johnston compares the tax paid over 2007-2010 with the profits earned over 2007-2010. This is a howler, because the tax paid during 2007-2010 is in relation to taxes earned during 2006-2009.

Is there any journalist out there that understands tax?

Valuing the Royal Family

Posted by Christie Malry on July 5, 2011 at 10:27 pm

Via the perennially stupid Bethemediauk, I'm alerted to a report by the Republic Campaign on the cost of the UK Royal Family. This claims that the true cost of our Royals is a startling £200 million, which they claim is enough to pay for 9,560 nurses or 8,200 police officers. In an extraordinary display of eye swivelling lunacy, the report shrieks that the Royal Family is one of the most expensive, wasteful and financially irresponsible institutions in the world. Which, in the wake of the global financial crisis, seems to be a triumph of cretinism over common sense.

Of course their estimate is, as the French would say, a total load of bollocks.

This is how they break down their £200 million figure:

First of all, the entire basis of the calculation is flawed. In saying that the Royal Family 'costs' £200 million per annum, and describes alternative things that this money could be spent on, it implies that one could free up £200 million of recurring resources by eliminating the Royal Family. But you couldn't. Because the estimate includes allocations of sunk cost, non-cash expenditure and omits the benefits of having a Royal Family (yes, there are some).

Sunk costs

Let's deal with the biggest, and stupidest, part of their estimate first. They claim that "security" costs us £100 million per year. But we're not surrounding the Royals with barricades made from £50 notes. We're protecting them with people - mostly police officers. So the Republic Campaign's argument is that we could sack 4,000 police officers who are currently spending their time protecting the Royal Family and, er, recruit 4,000 police officers to do something else. There simply isn't £100 million that's spent on the Royal Family that could be spent on other things without consequence.

It's worth noting that it's a basic principle that the supply of services to citizens, even royals, is based on their need rather than on any other basis. The Royal Family need greater protection than the rest of us, because of student lefty mongs and their predeliction for poking royals with sticks. And so we provide it to them out of the police service that is funded out of general taxation. Note that this principle underpins the entire welfare state, so to disagree with it is to argue that the entire welfare edifice - disability benefits, income support and housing allowances, etc. - needs to be demolished.

Non-cash expenditure

For the cost of the Queen's Civil List, they have taken the actual amount spent by the Civil List of £14.2 million. But this is the cash expenditure from the Civil List, not the amount by which it is topped up every year. That figure is £7.9 million per year, nearly half. So the current cost to the state of the Civil List isn't £14.2 million at all.

Omitted benefits

If we were to eliminate the Royal Family we would no longer be able to enjoy the benefits we get from having them. A big draw from the Royal Family is tourism, with foreigners apparently unable to resist a glimpse of our Windsors. The Guardian, not an obvious friend of the royalty, reports that the 2011 Royal Wedding alone produced a £2 billion boost for tourism - that's exports that we wouldn't otherwise have been able to generate without our Royal Family. The Diamond Jubilee in 2012 should similarly produce a boost for tourism. It's a fallacy to count the costs of the Royal Family without estimating their benefits. The Republic Campaign estimate is fatally flawed by its refusal to put a figure on their contribution to tourism and other industries.

There is also no mention of the fact that, since 1993, the Queen has paid income and capital gains tax on her income.

Other issues

There are other dubious estimates in the report, such as whether it is appropriate to treat the additional costs incurred by Romsey Council as representative of the costs incurred by a typical council during a Royal visit. 

Conclusion

I conclude that this is a hastily produced report that has not been subject to external verification or audit. It has allowed its nasty, bitter politics to undermine its message and, while there is a debate to be had as to the true cost of the Royal Family and whether that cost can be minimised, this report's contribution is of no value to that debate.

Given the way in which its message has been reported at length on Twitter, it is a deeply shabby and irresponsible report, and I have alerted the report's author, Graham Smith, to its errors. I await his response.

Multivariate analysis for dummies

Posted by Christie Malry on July 3, 2011 at 8:20 pm

Ritchie excels himself, with the following article about whether higher personal taxes will drive people out of the UK:

The latest ONS data on pop[ulation growth revealed the extraordinary fact that now we have a 50% tax rate in the UK fewer people emigrated.

 

Why is that?

 

Certainly it doesn’t suggest the rich are leaving in greater numbers.

 

Maybe it does suggest people like a more equal society.

 

And people came here in record numbers.

 

The myth that tax drives people away is, well, just a myth.

 

So’ like the rumour of fairies at the bottom of the garden shall we treat it as a load of old baloney - because that is what it is?

When challenged by his readers, he claimed that he was just being 'ironic' when in fact it's quite clear that he's being an idiot.

The factors which influence the decision whether or not to emigrate are complex. And it's obvious that tax will be one of these. If you're an entrepreneur and personal taxes in your country are 99%, then you will clearly want to move to a country with less punitive rates of taxation. But other factors are at work, such as the rates of tax in other countries, how easy it is to emigrate to another country, the languages they speak there, the system of laws there, what the weather is like there (yes, really), how easy it is to educate children there, and what the transport links are like.

Because there are lots of factors at work, it means that you can't meaningfully take simple observations and draw simple conclusions. You have to undertake a much more complex form of analysis, known as multivariate analysis. And even then you may only be able to draw broad inferences as to the direction of correlation.

Ritchie has shown time and time again that he is absolutely hopeless at multivariate analysis. He loves just to look at his desired outcome and a single variable and draw crass conclusions from random movements, while ignoring a whole host of other data included in the other variables. Two isolated observations, ignoring the other factors at play, are never going to be enough to work out what's really going on.

On the direction of correlation between taxation and emigration, which would ex ante appear to be positive, we can get some information from the team choices of NBA superstars (HT VeryBritishDude and Worstall). The article concludes that, in an environment where top pay is capped, NBA's top players choose to maximise their own personal take-home pay by choosing teams in low-tax states. This neatly eliminates a number of the possible variables that we identified above and leaves just a few, including the impact of personal tax rates.

What does Ritchie say to all this?

But you are showing weakness in multivariable (sic) analysis if you think tax the only cause

I don't. But because I really understand multivariate analysis, I know that a lower rate of emigration between two points is insufficient to conclude that higher tax rates do not correlate positively with greater emigration.