Banks should retain the same accounting standards as other businesses

Posted by Christie Malry on January 23, 2012 at 12:55 pm

There's been some press attention to a speech that Andy Haldane, a Bank of England director, gave at the ICAEW's Information for Better Markets conference in December.

Of most interest to the media was the suggestion that banks ought to be able to follow a different set of standards to other businesses because, basically, banks are different. I'm afraid I don't agree.

Having discussed this a bit on Twitter, I do share Frances Coppola's concern over banks following the fair value model in a rising market, then seeking to abandon it when the market falls. But the accounting rules were very clear about what should be done. It was unacceptable political interference in those standards that led to the rules being relaxed. It's not clear to me how aligning bank accounting standards with prudential regulation will reduce political meddling. If anything, wouldn't it be likely to make it easier?

Secondly, we just don't need to change accounting standards to make prudential regulation more effective. The regulator already has a lot of power at its disposal to demand information. So why not use those powers instead of reducing the usefulness of information available for shareholders? The precedent is there in corporate tax: the tax authorities request what they need, and amend information in the financial statements if necessary. No serious commentator has suggested aligning tax and financial reporting to reduce tax avoidance. And Haldane's suggestion fails for the same reason.

Bad news for the audit-bashers

Posted by Christie Malry on January 19, 2012 at 9:13 am

If you listen carefully today, you might be able to hear some wailing. That's Ian Fraser, Frannie and Ritchie crying because the naivety of their eagerness to blame the auditors for everything has been exposed.

AUDITORS KPMG and Ernst & Young have been cleared of any responsibility for the accounting black hole discovered at Olympus.

A report by Olympus' lawyers absolved the Japanese firms of blame, but claimed that current and former individual accountants - providing oversight within the business - were responsible for 8.3bn Yen (£70.4m) in damages, reported Reuters.

I called this one some time ago.

This would be a good time for the audit-bashers to admit they got this one wrong, and to be less hasty to blame auditors in the future.

Eoinomics: pre-distribution

Posted by Christie Malry on January 16, 2012 at 9:53 pm

Pre-distribution. The single (non) word that Eoin thinks will win Labour the 2015 election. So what is this big idea?

Essentially, the jist of Pre-Distribution is that you fix the way capitalism works before profits & incomes are made, and that way you have less redistributing to do at the other end. Take rail fares for example. During the New Labour years, the prices of rail fares were permitted to rise 5% over the rate of inflation. That often meant rail fare increases of 10%+. Under Ed Miliband's leadership, the maximum rail companies would be permitted to raise fares above inflation would be 1%. This would dramtically reduce price increases and thereby make the burden of transport costs easier for commuters. By making customers fork out less you enable them to keep money in their pockets and thereby help them cope with the cost of living crisis. Whereas subsidising transport costs, capping rail increases does not.

Eoin has managed to spectacularly miss the point here. The cost of rail depends really on two things: the quantity of services that need to be provided and the amount of investment that's needed to preserve and enhance the rail network. And this cost can be paid for in two ways: by recovering it from passengers through ticket prices or from general taxation.

If you cap rail fare increases, ceteris paribus, the amount of money to fund the railways will decrease. And this means that either the rail network has to run fewer trains or it cannot fund necessary improvements and repairs to the rail network. Or, most likely, both. Eoin's assertion that "capping rail increases does not [cost]", it most definitely does cost. Either more money is needed from general taxation or the quality of service provision must fall.

The same type of philosophy can be applied to reductions in Corporation Tax. Ed Miliband has said that companies qualifying for low tax will have to sign up to proper apprenticeship programmes or face punitive taxation. In addition crèche providers could be prevented from charging parents registration & reservation fees of hundreds of pounds when capacity at their crèches is not utilised.Can you see a pattern developing? You regulate companies to get it right at the point of pricing and delivery rather than correct big businesses failings by subsidising low wages etc. Whereas Tax Credits to subsidise low wages cost, a Living Wage does not.

The first bit of this is total interventionist meddling bollocks. Government has no authority to fuss about in private businesses like this. And they're totally incompetent at the bits of business they run themselves. They'd be mad to seek to interfere in the business affairs of others, and could certainly not hope to reduce overall costs by doing so.

The idea that a living wage is a free lunch is very dangerous. The living wage would destroy jobs. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but some day - and for as long as the living wage remains in force - it will destroy jobs. Some of them would end up being mechanised. Some would get exported to China or India. Some would end up being done by other people already working. But while we cry over redundancies, we never shed any tears for those jobs that were never created in the first place. And a living wage would lead to vast numbers of businesses seeking to place jobs elsewhere, in countries where the living wage legislation doesn't apply.

So this is the big idea that will win Miliband the 2015 election? I really don't  think so...

JP Morgan's golden egg vs Maxwell's silver hammer

Posted by Christie Malry on January 13, 2012 at 10:00 am

Accountancy Age reports, in relation to the fine handed down to pwc for failing to report client money failings at its client JP Morgan:

The fine [of £1.4 million], issued by the Financial Reporting Council's disciplinary arm the Accounting and Actuarial Discipline Board (AADB), trumps the £1.2m fine issued to PwC predecessor firm Coopers and Lybrand for its audit work of Robert Maxwell's businesses.

It doesn't say whether the amounts are adjusted for inflation. I suspect they're not, meaning that the Maxwell figure is actually still higher.

But it bloody well should be. In his case you had what amounted to the wholesale looting of the company and considerable amounts of fraud. No, it's not the auditor's job to detect fraud, but they can't legitimately do nothing when the fraud is so flagrant and widespread.

So why penalise pwc so heavily over client money abuses, where it hasn't been shown that anyone lost money, while a not dissimilar sum was levied over Maxwell? Does the AADB just fancy a bit of extra money? Where do the fines go? Perhaps this heralds an era of higher fines, which must also mean higher fees. Investors, ultimately, will pay for it all.

That ASI report on IFRS exacerbating the banking crisis

Posted by Christie Malry on December 15, 2011 at 9:54 pm

 

The consistently good Adam Smith Institute has published a report that points the finger at IFRS for making the financial crisis worse. It says that IFRS allowed banks to overstate their profits and draw big bonuses based on these illusory gains.

I'm by no means a banking expert, but I am deeply suspicious of the notion that accounting standards caused the crisis. It sounds to me like a thesis designed solely to let regulators, governments and investors off the hook for their own bad choices while unfairly overemphasising the role of financial reporting in the crisis.

The report identifies six main areas that it blames for allowing bankers to overstate their profits. The six areas, together with some initial reflections on them, are as follows:

  • Uncertain future cashflows can be recognised as certain by purchasing a credit default swap (CDS) or similar “protection”, even though the supplier of the protection is likely to default if the insured event occurs;

I'm fairly sure that counterparty risk has always been a consideration of any sort of hedging or netting accounting treatment. Certainly if the supplier of the protection is "likely" to default, the hedging treatment would not be permitted. So, the big question must be "likely" in whose opinion? 

  • Profits can be recognised from the increased value of assets, or decreased value of liabilities, on the basis of a market price, even though the totality of revalued assets or liabilities could not be sold at that price;

This sounds damning. But I think it's merely observing that if the entire stock of financial assets were sold all at the same time then there would be financial meltdown. Of course. For every seller there has to be a buyer. But there simply aren't enough buyers to pick up all the financial assets if they were to be sold at once.

But I think it's unrealistic to expect preparers to undertake the sophisticated calculus required to determine what would be the market price if they did try to sell all at the same time. Because they're not actually trying to do this, it's a slightly arbitrary exercise. Accounting aims to represent the world as best it can, but it's not trying to produce a perfect economic representation of the company at a point in time. Its preferred approach in this area is to pretend that you could make a marginal sale of these assets at their market price. That's all.

  • Profits can be recognised from the increased value of assets, or decreased value of liabilities, even when the revaluation of assets is estimated, not by market prices, but by a model built by bank employees. This is the so-called mark-to-model approach to valuation;

This has long been a problem. Banks create bespoke products for which there really is no market. So, while the accounting treatment for most financial products requires that you look to the market price, in respect of non-market products you must look to the internal model instead. It's less than ideal, but what would you actually do instead?

  • The net present value of uncertain future cashflows can be recognised as profits even when they are estimated using implausibly optimistic forecasts. (This is a variation of the mark-to-model problem listed above);

Again with the pejorative language. In whose opinion are they "implausibly optimistic"? Certainly, if the bank's auditors thought they were implausibly optimistic, they would have qualified the accounts. Is this the voice of reason talking or is it the report's author making substantial use of hindsight?

  • The EU’s IFRS accounting system, voluntarily adopted by UK and Irish banks at the banking company level, is inconsistent with UK law

Ah yes, I've seen this argument before. And, indeedy, Tim Bush is one of the report's references. I don't really know enough about the law behind it to be able to respond to Bush's argument. But I know it's not universally held by all experts, including those at BIS and the FRC.

  • Banks need not make provision for expected losses when calculating their profit.

Well, no. IFRS doesn't let them. But a project to implement some sort of expected loss provisioning is underway at the IASB. The main reason for forbidding expected loss provisioning was that, in the bad old days, banks were using it to smooth income by establishing large general provisions. So the accounting standard setters prohibited any form of forward provisioning. Now that general provisions are felt to be useful, they're being reintroduced. But they were absent by design, not by accident.

I'm left distinctly underwhelmed by the ASI report. It doesn't really reveal anything new. Indeed, all six points would have been known by analysts pre-crash and should have been known by regulators too (if they weren't then the FSA really does need to do some serious soul-searching). While the report does refer to a set of normative proposals to fix the identified problems, it's not clear that they really would work in the way intended. Financial instrument accounting is complex, so a set of solutions that might have helped somewhat in respect of a past crisis may prove insufficient in the face of an unspecified future crisis. 

 

Bringing morality to the markets

Posted by Christie Malry on October 30, 2011 at 9:13 pm

In an interesting, but ultimately flawed, blog post, Colin Talbot says:

Today I heard a Lib Dem MEP say something to the effect of “what are we going to do, stop the markets from doing certain things”? Well, er, yes. We stop ‘the markets’ from trading in human body parts, or in whole humans for that matter. We don’t allow them to freely trade nuclear weapons, or other WMDs. In other words there are all sorts of moral and practical restrictions placed upon the markets, for our own protection.

Markets don't "do" anything. They're merely a place where people interact. And, as ideas go, the idea of the free market is fundamentally unobjectionable. Why shouldn't people be able to buy and sell things to each other without interference? Markets are inherently a good thing.

Now, sometimes the outcome of a free transaction is inconsistent with society's norms. For example, the case of nuclear weapons given above. Although there may be a willing seller of nuclear weapons and a willing buyer of nuclear weapons, we collectively don't want the technology behind these weapons - or indeed the weapons themselves - to spread. So we intervene to forbid such transactions taking place in our free market.

There are a load of other examples . We don't allow buying/selling of slaves, some drugs, sex and children because these (rightly, in my view) offend our moral sensibilities. But that's not the fault of the market. It's just a place where people buy and sell. It has no ethical sense at all. The ethics of a market transaction depend on the buyer, the seller, and society's interpretation of it.

Blaming "the markets" for stuff society doesn't like is an unacceptable cop-out. We should regulate sellers of stuff we don't like, or we should regulate buyers of stuff we don't like. It's not the fault of "the markets". What we consider acceptable or not is, after all, a societal construct.

So, with that in mind, let's turn to Talbot's three suggestions for fixing "the markets":

You should not be able to sell stuff you don’t own.

The whole basis of ‘short-selling’ is you sell something you don’t own now, in order to drive down the price of the things you don’t own so you can later buy them for less than you just sold the things you don’t own for.

I can’t for the life of me see how this generates any value to anybody except allowing the short-sellers to rip everyone else off. Their ‘bet’ that the price will fall is not based on anything ‘real’, like the value of the item, but simply on their ability to manipulate the market. On the contrary, if the thing being sold is something like a companies shares it is doing a lot of damage. What is it good for?

Nope. Totally wrong. There are all sorts of legitimate reasons for short-selling. And, indeed, plenty of businesses sell stuff they don't own. At the risk of reiterating material I already wrote in an earlier blog post, here are some instances of short-selling in business:

  • Just-in-time manufacturing. Efficient manufacturing businesses sell goods they don't own, then manufacture them quickly once they've been ordered. This helps businesses by reducing their need to hold significant quantities of inventory (which might fail to sell, go bad or get stolen).
  • Bespoke printing. I understand that Amazon will print up books for you 'to order'. They don't exist at the time of ordering, but they'll print them, bind them and send them to you.
  • Airlines. Airlines don't actually have "a seat on a flight from London to New York at 8:50am on 23 February 20X2" when you order it. But we don't seem to have a problem with allowing people to buy one.
  • University courses.  Similarly for university courses. Professor Talbot doesn't actually have any of the courses his university is selling. Nor, to the extent that they're examined courses, have any of the exam papers yet been written.
  • Writers. Publishers often provide advances to authors, sometimes before even a single word has been written. What's that, if not short-selling?

In all of these cases, while the seller doesn't actually have what he's selling in his grubby little hands at the point of sale, he does have the capacity to provide it. And, if he fails to provide it, he is liable to breach of contract. That's as true for these cases as it is for short-selling of shares. A short-seller of equities has the capacity to acquire the shares in question. If, for any reason, he fails to do so, he must pay the financial consequences.

If you need an introduction to how short-selling works, and why it's not problematic, you should acquaint yourself with three girls, two cups.

You shouldn’t be able to insure things you don’t own either.

If I were to insure a camera I didn’t own, but actually belonged to my mate, and then he had it stolen whilst on holiday, I don’t know any insurance company that would pay me. Au contraire, I’d probably get a visit from Sgt Plod asking me why I was trying to rip off the insurance company. As with so much else, this doesn’t seem to apply in the topsy-turvy moral universe of finance capital.

Anyone can purchase a CDS, even buyers who do not hold the loan instrument and may have no direct “insurable interest” in the loan. The buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments (the CDS “fee” or “spread”) to the seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if the loan defaults.”

Again, I fail to see any utility in this transaction for the real world the rest of us inhabit and if I tried to pull this stunt with a car I’d end up in prison.

Well, I have some sympathy with this line of thinking, and I take great solace from the fact that Frances Coppola does too, However, Talbot's reasons fail the basic standard that we set out in the beginning. He's saying that we should ban CDSs because he "fail[s] to see any utility" in them. But there are plenty of other things that he probably can't see any utility in; say the selling of marmite-flavoured chocolate. Should we ban that too?

No, the only reason to ban something is if we can point to the specific way that it offends society. Beyond the fact that it just feels 'iffy', Talbot fails to make the case.

You should pay tax on every transaction that supposedly ‘adds value’.

One of the main reasons for financial systems running amok is the volume of trades – these have spiraled to unprecedented levels. When the rest of us buy and sell things we (mostly) pay VAT on the transaction, which, in case you have forgotten is “value added” tax. So if these financial transaction as ‘value adding’ as their proponents claim, why don’t they have to pay tax on them? When a car component manufacturer sells a car widget to the manufacturer they have to pay a whopping 20% VAT. Why doesn’t this apply to financial ‘products’?

This betrays a fundamental understanding of how value added tax works. VAT is a tax paid by consumers on the value added to a good or service during its manufacture. So the car component manufacturer doesn't pay "a whopping 20% VAT". The VAT, if any, will be paid by the purchaser, not the seller. And, in turn, the seller will account for that input VAT when it sells the final product on to customers. Customers are the end of the chain: they cannot reclaim their input VAT so ultimately they must pay VAT 1.

Businesses do, of course, have a sort of 'value added' tax of their own. It's called corporation tax, and is payable on the taxable profits made by businesses. So our car component manufacturer (presuming they're incorporated) will pay corporation tax on the profit it makes between buying in metal, shaping it into widgets and selling those widgets to other companies.

Contrary to popular belief, financial businesses do pay corporation tax on the sum of all those little profits they make from super-fast transactions. So Talbot's desire to see added value being taxed is already reality.

And, again contrary to popular  belief, financial services businesses don't dodge VAT. The provision of financial services is VAT-exempt, which means financial services businesses cannot recover their input VAT. Their prices therefore effectively include VAT already to allow them to recover it in an economic sense 2.

There may yet be a case for introducing a financial transaction tax. I don't buy it, myself. But inaccurately stating that financial transactions aren't subject to a tax on the value added isn't the way to make the case.

Notes:

  1. Whether they ultimately bear VAT is a much more complex issue and is well beyond the scope of this blog post.
  2. The Mirrlees review suggested that the VAT status of financial services businesses ought to be changed.

I can solve this auditor rotation problem for you, you know...

Posted by Christie Malry on October 24, 2011 at 9:06 pm

So a survey finds that the vast majority of senior finance staff actually do support mandatory auditor rotation after all...

MANDATORY AUDITOR ROTATION is supported by almost nine-in-ten (87%) finance executives, and the group is calling for a shorter rotation period than the European Commission's porposed nine years.

The survey by recruitment specialist Robert Half questioned 200 chief financial officers and finance directors.

Almost half (49%) plumped for a new auditor at least every four years, while 82% called for rotation on a three-yearly basis.

This flies in the face of feedback from the 100 Group, made up of FTSE-leader FDs, who said mandatory rotation and other proposals "show a fundamental misunderstanding" of the issues and are "deeply concerning".

The results indicated large and listed companies are most in favour of mandatory rotation every three years.

I haz solution! If you want to change your auditors, just do it. There's no need to be forced to do something you already want to do and can quite easily do.

Seriously, it makes these finance directors sound utterly pathetic. Like a whiny bunch of smokers who want smoking to be banned everywhere just because they're too weak to give up on their own.

Ironically, if they really do want auditor rotation then there will be no need for the European Union to act on the matter. Because it will just happen.

The credentials of financial journalists

Posted by Christie Malry on October 22, 2011 at 8:39 am

So these people who write advice on the financial pages... how qualified are they to provide you with general financial advice? Well, if Edmund Tirbutt's story is anything to go by, not very...

It felt satisfying to certify myself as a "sophisticated investor" to take advantage of what appeared an opportunity of a lifetime back in October 2005. After writing up a talk about Bulgarian property for a newsletter, my 20 years' experience in the financial services industry assured me it was a suitable home for some of the proceeds of my recent flat sale.

We reasoned that it was well worth chancing our arm with the minimum investment of £21,000 – only 10% of our available capital. It could make a significant difference to us if it lived up to expectations, whereas no investment opportunities regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) seemed to offer any real potential.

Nearly six tortuous years later I am not feeling so sophisticated. Barclays Wealth, the current managers and trustees of the fund, has finally stated that it no longer views our selected Arkoutino sub-fund as viable and estimates that its net assets are worth around 8% of the money originally invested. As the winding up process is complex and expensive we could receive back nothing at all.

Not wishing to be unkind, but you'd think that after 20 years writing about investing, Tirbutt would have picked up some of the basic investing rules, such as, uh, "don't put all your eggs in one basket." Or, you know, "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is."

While at the Mail on Sunday, Independent on Sunday and the Daily Telegraph, did none of his 18 awards for excellence cover the importance of proper diversification and careful due diligence? While he's clearly a very talented writer, rookie investment errors like this must call into question whether he's really in command of his chosen subject. Of course, he's in good company here: there are many other financial journalists who appear unable to comprehend even the most basic accounting or tax. 

And this comment is particularly cutting:

Edmund - sorry to hear that. I have successfully operated in Bulgaria since 2005, building up a €40 million portfolio in Sofia for my investors.

I have never heard of:

Jonty Crossick

Ready2invest

R2R Bulgaria Property Fund

Equity Trust

Arkoutino sub-fund

and feel sure I would have come across them if they genuinely existed. Who are their auditors, as maybe the whole thing is a scam? Do they have any assets which can be checked?

Uganda has no need of country by country reporting

Posted by Christie Malry on October 12, 2011 at 10:34 pm

Courtesy of Ritchie, we find on the BBC website:

Uganda’s parliament has voted to suspend all new deals in the oil sector following claims that government ministers took multi-million dollar bribes.

MP Gerald Karuhanga said in parliament on Monday that UK-based Tullow Oil paid bribes to influence decisions.

Ritchie concludes from all of this that:

This is great news! Corruption of this sort has to be tackled: those involved have to be named and oil revenues have to be made accountable, most especially through country-by-country reporting.

Uganda has taken a step in the right direction.

Er, no, that doesn't follow at all. Uganda tells big bad oil companies that if they want to pump all that lovely Ugandan oil then they're going to need to play by Uganda's rules. In order to show them that Uganda is serious, they're all going to have to sit on the naughty step for a while.

We don't need country-by-country reporting to get them to toe the line; countries like Uganda have shown us that they're more than capable of handling corruption on their own. And because they've got the black sticky stuff companies want, companies will have to do as they're told.

Responding to Allister Heath on audit exemption

Posted by Christie Malry on October 6, 2011 at 9:48 pm

Allister Heath, the only business journalist I actively rush to read every morning has had a funny turn this morning: 

CABLE RIGHT FOR ONCE

EVERY little helps. Vince Cable’s business department plans to make 36,000 small companies exempt from having to audit their accounts – a process that currently costs almost £10,000 per year. It will also allow 83,000 subsidiaries to opt out.

While it doesn’t go that far, this is nevertheless one of the few genuine deregulatory measures taken by a government that has otherwise continued to add extra red tape (contrary to what it claims). For once, therefore, Vince Cable deserves to be congratulated. I can hardly believe I have just written this – but I mean it.

Well, he's right that this government, like the last one, has categorically failed to deliver any meaningful improvement in business regulation. But it's unfortunate that he shares with Cable the misguided notion that audit is an unnecessary regulatory burden.

It's important to distinguish two issues here. Firstly it's right that the government should be very careful about what it mandates. So I have no problem with the government reducing the number of companies that are required to have an audit by law. But Cable has gone further. By articulating the cost of audit, he's incorrectly ignoring the benefits that those companies get from their audit. For some of them, the cost will not exceed the benefit. But for others the benefits can be significant. Audit helps give owner-managers a better grip on their business. It may help identify internal control weaknesses that could damage the business, or to find improvements that could boost profitability. Most vitally, an audited set of accounts can help convince lenders that the company is a better credit risk, reducing their borrowing and credit costs.

But, even worse, Cable's rhetoric is unacceptably disparaging of an important business process. As an analogy, imagine for a moment that the government were to decide to do away with the annual MOT for cars. While this would be bad for many garages, they would be outraged if government were to paint the MOT as an unnecessary burden on motorists. Doing so would undermine any hope they might have of selling an annual car health-check to motorists on a voluntary basis. Given the the importance of growth to the government's agenda, it's astonishing that Cable would put the boot into the accountancy sector in the way he has. And even more incredible when you think that his department has responsibility for the sector (through the Financial Reporting Council).

Audit wasn't invented by government. However, the current audit requirements, some of which are felt by politicians to be burdensome, are entirely due to government. They have some serious chutzpah trying to take credit for destroying a market which, were it not for them, would happily offer value-added services to business. Only, thanks to the graceless nature of Cable's withdrawal, that now looks unlikely.

The ACCA don't like Vince's proposals, while the ICAEW are decidedly lukewarm and are asking their members for feedback.