Multivariate analysis for dummies

Posted by Christie Malry on July 3, 2011 at 8:20 pm

Ritchie excels himself, with the following article about whether higher personal taxes will drive people out of the UK:

The latest ONS data on pop[ulation growth revealed the extraordinary fact that now we have a 50% tax rate in the UK fewer people emigrated.

 

Why is that?

 

Certainly it doesn’t suggest the rich are leaving in greater numbers.

 

Maybe it does suggest people like a more equal society.

 

And people came here in record numbers.

 

The myth that tax drives people away is, well, just a myth.

 

So’ like the rumour of fairies at the bottom of the garden shall we treat it as a load of old baloney - because that is what it is?

When challenged by his readers, he claimed that he was just being 'ironic' when in fact it's quite clear that he's being an idiot.

The factors which influence the decision whether or not to emigrate are complex. And it's obvious that tax will be one of these. If you're an entrepreneur and personal taxes in your country are 99%, then you will clearly want to move to a country with less punitive rates of taxation. But other factors are at work, such as the rates of tax in other countries, how easy it is to emigrate to another country, the languages they speak there, the system of laws there, what the weather is like there (yes, really), how easy it is to educate children there, and what the transport links are like.

Because there are lots of factors at work, it means that you can't meaningfully take simple observations and draw simple conclusions. You have to undertake a much more complex form of analysis, known as multivariate analysis. And even then you may only be able to draw broad inferences as to the direction of correlation.

Ritchie has shown time and time again that he is absolutely hopeless at multivariate analysis. He loves just to look at his desired outcome and a single variable and draw crass conclusions from random movements, while ignoring a whole host of other data included in the other variables. Two isolated observations, ignoring the other factors at play, are never going to be enough to work out what's really going on.

On the direction of correlation between taxation and emigration, which would ex ante appear to be positive, we can get some information from the team choices of NBA superstars (HT VeryBritishDude and Worstall). The article concludes that, in an environment where top pay is capped, NBA's top players choose to maximise their own personal take-home pay by choosing teams in low-tax states. This neatly eliminates a number of the possible variables that we identified above and leaves just a few, including the impact of personal tax rates.

What does Ritchie say to all this?

But you are showing weakness in multivariable (sic) analysis if you think tax the only cause

I don't. But because I really understand multivariate analysis, I know that a lower rate of emigration between two points is insufficient to conclude that higher tax rates do not correlate positively with greater emigration.  

Worstall on accounting for marketing costs

Posted by Christie Malry on June 8, 2011 at 1:21 pm

I sometimes (inadvisably) dabble in economics, so it's only fair that Worstall should have a go at accounting:

An online marketing company decides to treat online marketing as [  ] not an expense.

That's, umm, pretty good really.

Actually, irony aside, there are some reasons to be sympathetic to Groupon. Broadly, there are two approaches to accounting for your own marketing costs: you can either expense it as soon as you spend it, or you can capitalise it and amortise it over some future period.

Businesses, in their management accounts, probably think more like the latter. They are running marketing campaigns today in order to generate sales in the future. Otherwise, let's face it, they wouldn't do it.

Some marketing is very successful. Well, of course, otherwise they wouldn't do it. I can tell you that there's a website called confused.com because I hear young people saying they're "confused.com" (although God knows what you'd find there). I know that there's a series of advertisements with meerkats in them (again, dunno what for). And I can attribute "calm down, dear" to Michael Winner, not David Cameron's sexism. In all of these cases, various companies have - rather unsuccessfully in my case - tried to build their brand familiarity through marketing expenditure.

Accounting standards take a different approach. Because standards are based largely around balance sheet concepts, they seek to understand what asset might have been created once a campaign has aired. An asset in Accountingspeak is "rights or other access to future economic benefits as a result of past actions or events". Obviously, marketing provides no rights over your customers' money. They might buy, or they might go elsewhere. Even if you could argue for the creation of an asset, you would never be able to measure it with sufficient accuracy. So standards say to write the whole lot off.

This is intellectually coherent. But it does mean you've got a load of future sales that don't have the "full" cost of sales against them, because you wrote some of it off earlier.

The accounting standards approach also has the advantage in that, should a campaign fail, you've already written the costs off so there's no need to take further unforeseen expenses through the P&L.

Logic lesson for Shaxson

Posted by Christie Malry on March 18, 2011 at 1:02 pm

As regards tax avoidance and whether what is legal is automatically legitimate, well I will wheel out this thing that I’m rather tired of wheeling out: slavery and apartheid were legal in their day: that didn’t make it legitimate. Tax avoidance by definition is legal, but also by definition involves getting around the spirit of the law. Which in my book makes it wrong.

My new best friend, Nick Shaxson, makes this argument over at Worstall's gaff.

He's right to be tired of making this argument. It's total blithering nonsense. Watch and learn:

"Interracial marriage and homosexuality are wrong!"
"No they're not. They're totally legal."
"Slavery and apartheid were legal in their day. That doesn't make them legitimate."

You see, slavery and apartheid tell us nothing useful about tax law. Just because they were legal once and now illegal, it doesn't mean that any other arbitrary activity that is now legal should also be illegal. If the problem is the tax law, then it should be trivial for Big State campaigners to propose changes in the law that will fix the problem. Yet we know that David Gauke, the minister responsible, thinks that UKuncut are misguided and that  Richard Murphy is an idiot.

Instead, they're lying down in shops on a portfolio so flimsy, it would make even Tony Blair blush. It might actually be funny, were it not for its deleterious impact on ordinary people and the message it sends to business: You're not welcome here.

Deconstructing Ritchie's defence of UKuncut

Posted by Christie Malry on March 18, 2011 at 12:23 am

Ritchie, true to his Irish roots, has posted a late night St Patrick's Day blog post that perhaps betrays one too many pints of Guinness. What's got his goat is an article that Tim Worstall has penned for the Institute of Economic Affairs. I haven't seen the article itself, only Ritchie's quotes from it. But he puts up a strong defence of the tax affairs of the four main targets of UKuncut - Vodafone, Topshop, Boots and Barclays.

Now, readers of this blog will know that I also consider the arguments that have been made by UKuncut and others are incredibly weak. Surprisingly weak, really. If your main thesis is that companies are on the take and that some £120bn of tax is lost annually to avoidance and evasion from all sources, don't you think they'd be able to come up with some watertight examples of tax avoidance, so we could all understand what they mean?  The fact that they can't suggests, to me at least, that it's all a load of profound Ritchiebollocks.

On Vodafone:

That’s why the UK Revenue were winning all the way through the courts was it? Because they were. And that’s also why Vodafone provided for a bill about twice what they paid, was it? Because they did? No, this is Worstall making the misrepresentations here. It’s undeniable that no one knows the full facts of this case - except that as Private Eye have repeatedly alleged, that Dave Hartnett, boss of HMRC, took his winning team off it and with the help of Deloitte negotiated a cut down deal announced a few days before George Osborne was promoting the company in India. The allegation is not about tax in that case at all – it’s about the deal that was done. Worstall completely ignores the real issue – or maybe seeks to misrepresent it.

It's a principle of English law that only the highest court matters. In broad terms, the lowest rung of the courts system can only enforce the law that's there. They're bound by precedent from previous cases, and especially by precedent from higher courts. The Court of Appeal takes the facts of the previous case as read and seeks to enquire whether the law has been applied properly. At the very highest level, the Supreme Court has much more latitude - for example, it can override past precedent. But even it must follow the law as laid down by politicians. For matters which concern European law there is also a European appeal mechanism.

The facts in Vodafone were particularly complex from a legal point of view. While what Vodafone had done was deemed tax avoidance under UK law, and therefore gave rise to a tax charge, that bit of UK law was technically in breach of European law. Whether the breach was reasonable would have been the subject of a very finely balanced legal argument. Certainly well above the heads of the lower courts, which is why they found in favour of HMRC. Had Vodafone decided to appeal to Europe, it's entirely possible that they might have won their appeal. This would have been catastrophic for HMRC, as they would have had to repay Vodafone and it would have opened the floodgates for claims from other companies, as well as rubber-stamping copycat tax avoidance structures.

With all of this in mind, Hartnett, perhaps having discussed the risks with the government, settled with Vodafone. This brings in a big amount of cash, without the risks of an appeal being taken to the European courts.

It's entirely appropriate that government departments, egged on by government, should have the autonomy to make judgements of this sort. And their decision-making process is open to scrutiny through the Parliamentary committee process. But Vodafone aren't to blame for seizing a fair settlement, which ends years of uncertainty and expensive legal bills. If anyone's to blame, it's HMRC. So UKuncut should lobby them, not disrupt the one shopping day a week that many ordinary people rely upon.

Ritchie's remark that Vodafone had provided for a bill that was "twice what they paid" is facile. As any accountant knows, the amount that companies are required to provide in their accounts is their best estimate of the amount that they will ultimately pay. As it's an estimate, it's bound to be wrong. It's no surprise that Vodafone's estimate ended up being larger than what they paid, because it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

On Boots:

Sure the deal was legal – no one said otherwise. But there’s widespread feeling that the UK is being taken for a ride on this issue of giving extraordinarily generous relief for borrowing: borrowing in this case expended to buy Boots and not incurred in the course of its trade. That does stand contrary to a principle of general tax law – that relief is not given as a matter of course when it is incurred to put yourself in a position to do a trade rather than n in the course of actually undertaking it. But legality is not disputed. It’s the way the law is being abused in the opinion of many that is being highlighted.

If it's the law itself that's at fault, then UKuncut must lobby government to change that law. It's totally unacceptable for protestors to disrupt companies who are doing what is expected of them - following the law. If Boots decided to not follow the law, there would be outrage.

That said, I welcome Ritchie's admission that the legality of what Boots's owners are doing "not disputed".

On Topshop:

All true, of course. And all utterly misleading. First, the UK has sought to challenge settlements from husbands on wives. Worstall ignores this. They have not in this case, but the law to do so exists. Second, Worstall ignores the fact that the protest highlights the offshore arrangements used – which are considered to be abusive in themselves by those protesting, and without which it is certain more tax would have been paid somewhere. So again Wortsall utterly misrepresents the basis for the protest.

So, while HMRC has challenged some of the dodgier husband/wife transactions, it hasn't done so in the case of the Greens. Why do you think that might be? Because, perhaps, their tax affairs are deemed to be in order?

It matters not a fig that 'those protesting' think that what the Greens are doing is wrong. HMRC hasn't seen fit to challenge them in the courts. Who do UKuncut think they are to second-guess that judgement?

Even Ritchie must admit that "more tax would have been paid somewhere" is a pitifully weak case for protest.

On Barclays:

The protest is fourfold. Firstly Barclays has form on tax avoidance. Second, Barclays hasn’t made losses. In that case, why has it got them available in the UK for tax purposes? Could this be because the UK has such generous relief for losses it decided to record those it had here? This is in itself a basis for protest. Third, the lack of transparency is an issue – we don’t know why Barclays paid so little tax. Country-by-country reporting of bank profits would resolve this. Fourth, Barclays enjoyed and still enjoys state subsidies. For example it has its depositors funds guaranteed. In that case to allow relief of losses already supported by the state is unreasonable and the law should be changed. Worstall misses all these points, I presume deliberately.

Oh dear, Ritchie, oh dear. The UK tax return takes as its starting point the profit (or loss) of a standalone UK company. Ritchie has directed us towards the consolidated income statement of Barclays, which includes all of its overseas subsidiaries, as well as a bunch of consolidation adjustments to remove intercompany transactions. You really can't derive an awful lot about the UK tax liability from the consolidated income statement, as The Guardian found to its peril when it published its stupid story about Barclays' 1% tax rate. I debunked that little myth here.

In order to get any understanding, you have to turn to the tax reconciliation note, which lists the main items that cause the actual tax charge paid by the entire group to differ from the hypothetical tax charge you'd get by multiplying the UK (or blended global) tax rate by the consolidated profits.

Given that Ritchie is so blind to the facts of this case, we must take his claim that Barclays has "form on tax avoidance" with a very significant pinch of salt.

We do know pretty well why Barclays paid "so little" tax. Country by country reporting is totally unnecessary. It's expensive, investors don't want it, companies don't want it and auditors don't want it. When protestors are so compulsively stupid, no amount of additional disclosure will make the blindest bit of difference.

If Barclays is indeed benefiting from a state subsidy, we can expect it to return to profitability sooner and to soak up all those brought-forward losses. It would be highly irregular to change the law retrospectively to catch a single group of taxpayers. It would perhaps even be deemed illegal, if challenged in the courts.

Looking through each of the criticisms in turn, it's clear that Ritchie's running on empty and that he has failed to land any punches on the main thrust of Worstall's argument - that the case of tax avoidance is simply unproven.

As a result, we can confidently conclude that it's very unlikely that the estimates of tax avoidance are anywhere near the levels purported by UKuncut and other tax campaigners.

Shouldn't The Guardian hire a deputy City editor who understands accounting?

Posted by Christie Malry on March 17, 2011 at 8:54 am

Via a kindly tweet from Frances_Coppola, my attention is drawn to yet another gut-wrenchingly stupid article by Jill Treanor.  She's writing about Barclays and its loss carry-forwards:

Barclays has deferred tax assets of £2.5bn, up from £2.3bn, as a result of losses in the UK, the US and Spain, which will help to reduce its tax bill in the years ahead.

According to the bank's annual report, published after markets shut last night, some £1bn of the tax assets – which the bank can count against tax bills – had been stored up from losses incurred before 2010.

OK, Jill. It's important to be very precise here. Deferred tax is an accounting gimmick, which seeks to match the tax treatment of things in the accounts to their accounting treatment. By contrast, current tax is a very real concept. A current tax liability is a bill that the company owes to the taxman. A current tax asset is a refund that the company is due. It's very important not to mix the two up.

When a company makes a loss, it will recognise a deferred tax asset to the extent that it believes that those losses can be offset against future profits. If there are doubts about the recoverability of those losses, for example if there are conditions over how they can be offset or if there are doubts about how profitable the company will be in future, the company won't recognise the full amount of the deferred tax asset.

So what really matters to us is the amount of losses the company has to offset against taxes in the future. And the deferred tax asset is a fairly good guide to that. It's possible that the company may get to utilise more losses than it has recognised as a deferred tax asset, which would increase its current year tax rate and reduce its future tax rate. But companies aren't allowed to massage their tax rate in this way.

Back to the article. It's not the deferred tax assets which will reduce Barclays' future tax bill. It's the losses, which the deferred tax assets help us estimate. And it's misleading and really a bit dim to talk about "the tax assets" when she really means "the brought forward losses".

The bank, which survived the banking crisis without a direct taxpayer bailout, incurred controversy when it admitted to the Treasury select committee that it paid just £113m of corporation tax in the UK in 2009 – when it made £11.9bn of profits.

The bank has never been specific about how its tax bill stayed so low, other than to refer to losses it had incurred previously.

Ugh, still peddling that nonsense. Barclays doesn't need to be specific about how its tax bill stayed so low, because various bloggers (e.g. here) have explained it for them. Heck, I even explained it myself. It's pretty freaking obvious to anyone with a minimal amount of accountancy training.

The exact amount of tax assets that Barclays has in the UK is unclear. UK rules allow the bank to use the losses against future profits indefinitely. Other countries, such as Germany, place restrictions on the time such losses can be carried.

No doubt this will be used as yet another call by the Ritchies of this world for country-by-country reporting. Of course, there's an easier way. With a bit of legwork, some bright spark could plough through Barclays' UK subsidiaries and dig out the deferred tax asset numbers. While this wouldn't be perfect, for the reasons outlined above, it would give a fair indication of the quantum of the tax losses available for offset against future profits.

As Worstall has noted over at his gaff, I don't think Germany places restriction on time. It does, as I understand it, set a minimum tax payment in any one year, so a company can't reduce its tax payment to zero merely by utilising losses.

These sorts of howlers, coming as they do on top of a string of piss poor articles about banks, their accounting and their taxes, really do call into question why on earth Jill Treanor is still in gainful employment at The Guardian. There are 2.53 million unemployed people in the UK. Surely one of them knows more about this stuff than Jill?

The neanderthal social views of the ukuncut protestors

Posted by Christie Malry on December 6, 2010 at 9:36 am

Another weekend brings more news of protests by the ukuncut crew about perceived tax avoidance. Clearly they've got bored of Vodafone, or perhaps they're finding their prices on iPhones too hard to quit 1, so they've moved on to Topshop as their new target.

The rap sheet for Topshop is fairly well rehearsed.  Topshop is the success story of Sir Philip Green.  In 2005, the Arcadia group, which owns Topshop, paid a dividend of £1.2bn to Sir Philip's wife, who is the owner of Arcadia. Only she isn't UK resident or domiciled (she lives in Monaco), so no income tax was payable by her on the receipt.

Critics, led by that dribbling rent-a-tard Richard Murphy, claim that by paying the dividend in this way Green saved £285 million. But let's unpack the assumptions that make such a claim possible.

For as far back as anyone can remember, the UK has had as a core principle of taxation that transfers between spouses are completely tax exempt.  A husband can transfer assets to his wife without triggering a capital gain. The only exceptions are where a UK resident spouse transfers assets to a non-UK domiciled spouse, where a lifetime limit applies.

The UK has also moved strongly against the principle that a husband and wife are to be treated in any way as a single unit for income tax purposes.

Mrs Green lives in Monaco, and is pretty obviously resident and domiciled there. Given that the UK has no ability to tax people who don't live there, what exactly does the charge of tax avoidance made by Murphy and others mean?  Note how Murphy says that (Sir Philip) Green has saved £285 million of tax.

So, perhaps the concern is:

  • it's somehow improper for one spouse to transfer assets (in this case Arcadia) to the other.
  • it's somehow improper for one spouse to do all the work but for the other to receive the benefit.

Are there other reasons?  I don't know.  Dividends, you will recall, are only payable out of retained profits, which accumulate from post-tax income.  That means the income used to pay to Mrs Green has already been taxed in the hands of the company once.  OK, so higher rate taxpayers must pay an additional amount when they receive dividends. But dividends are the main way that companies distribute benefits back to their owners.  Corporation tax is our mechanism to ensure that foreign owners of UK companies don't escape their tax obligations altogether.

So the tax protestors seem to be arguing that Mrs Green hasn't really earned her £1.2 billion but that Sir Philip has. And therefore that it ought to be taxed as part of his income instead.  As he is (according to Worstall) UK resident, this would mean additional amounts of tax to pay.  I find this incredibly insulting.  The divorce courts in the UK have long fought against the pernicious idea that women are useless accoutrements for their richer, more intelligent, more able husbands.  Woe betide the millionaire husband who tries to argue in a UK court that he brought all the money into his marriage.  Many have found that 'homemaking' is seen as the vital cog in a marriage that makes the husband's earnings possible, and the split of resources on divorce typically reflects this.  I know as much about Cristina Green as any tax protestor (i.e. nothing) but I am offended that it's assumed that she's thoroughly worthless.

Instead, is it the asset transfer between spouses that tax protestors wish to attack?  This exists for the very good reason that spouses are expected in law and reality to look after each other.  Exempting transfers removes an obstacle from them doing that.  Do we really want a tax regime that penalises a spouse from doing the right thing, even if it sometimes also benefits rich people?  For sure, we could introduce some sort of lifetime limit for UK domiciles too, but only at a cost of unwanted complexity.  And, the reasons above notwithstanding, we do think about married couples as a single unit in some social contexts, and continue to do so in the welfare benefits system.

We have always known that the left wing are a bit thick.  Yet it seems that they're desperate to grasp the mantle of 'nasty' from the Tories as well. They're well on the way.

Notes:

  1. Why does the @ukuncut account post via Twitter for iPhone anyway? Anyone who has an iPhone has more money than they need.

Quote of the day, Ritchiebollocks edition

Posted by Christie Malry on November 29, 2010 at 2:11 pm

Thanks to the genius that is Chris Dillow:

Thankfully the dread name of Richard Murphy doesn't appear in this book.

Written on my Android mobile phone. Article may be edited later.

A new cartel for the banking sector

Posted by Christie Malry on November 15, 2010 at 8:46 am

Radio 4's Today programme reported this morning that the UK's major banking institutions are meeting to discuss whether they can, as a group, reduce their bonuses to employees. They don't dare act solo, lest key performers leave. But they remain under major pressure from MPs and wider society to act responsibly, given the support given to the sector.

But imagine a different meeting had taken place. One in which they had conspired to raise prices. Obviously, this would have been illegal - a clear example of Adam Smith's prediction about meetings between rivals turning to ways to rip off their customers. So why is it acceptable to conspire to reduce the financial benefits to one stakeholder group, but not another?

To be fair to the BBC, they did observe that the meeting might be deemed illegal under competition law. And also that the Treasury might be distinctly unamused. Hardly surprising, given that half of all bonuses belongs to them. The proposed cut in bonuses neatly offsets the proposed banking levy.

You'll remember, if you read Worstall's blog (and you should), you'll know that corporate benefits are shared between stakeholders and that tax increases tend to be borne most heavily by employees. Doesn't this rather prove it?

Written on my Android mobile phone. Article may be edited later.

Ritchie's latest tax gap report

Posted by Christie Malry on October 19, 2010 at 9:54 am

Ritchie has a new tax gap report.  It's been fairly comprehensively reviewed by Worstall here.

Rather than rake over the very detailed comments that Tim has made, virtually all of which I agree with, I'll focus on one that he's missed.  Ritchie has studied the apparent decline in the headline tax rate paid by UK companies.  But he has used the consolidated corporation tax charge, adjusted only for outliers, deferred tax and goodwill amortisation.

But this leaves in it all tax paid overseas.  So it's a nonsense to compare a company like Anglo American, which makes most of its money in South Africa and South America, with GlaxoSmithKline which makes the lion's share of its profits in the US.  Both are listed in London, for sure, but they are global businesses with global profit profiles.  It's a fallacy to compare them side by side without taking account of their specific situations.

It's also amusing to note that Murphy excludes as outliers any company that has reported taxes greater than 50% of profits or has reported taxes when loss-making.  Yet, he'd be the first to excoriate any company that reports low taxes compared to corporate profits!

Ritchiebollocks on pensions

Posted by Christie Malry on October 12, 2010 at 9:55 am

I've resisted as long as I possibly can. I've sat on my hands, locked my computer, gone for long walks but now the moment has arrived.  I must respond to Richard Murphy's perfectly idiotic and profoundly wrong theory about pensions.  He has written to the Guardian about it, and the morons have published it:

in 2007-08, private pension funds in the UK received subsidies amounting to £37.6bn while paying pensions in that year of just £35bn to those in retirement. The result was that in that year every single penny of pensions paid in the UK were paid at direct cost to the UK taxpayer, and none in effect by anyone else.

This is so stupid, I'm tempted to write to the ICAEW to enquire whether Ritchie has been keeping up with his CPD. How else can you explain a chartered accountant expecting us to buy this flaccid argument?

It's a cast-iron case of Ritchiebollocks.  The fact is - the 'subsidies' received by private pension funds are totally unrelated to the pensions paid out.  Here's why.  I am currently paying into my pension.  I decide to redirect some of my earnings into my pension plan, and the government in its infinite mercy and wisdom decides that it won't tax me now, it will tax me later.  It therefore allows me to pay into my pension fund out of pre-tax earnings.  I build up a fund in my name.

Elsewhere, in another part of the country, there's someone else who has already retired.  He or she has taken their pot of money and given it to an insurance company to turn that pot into income.  They reinvest the pot so as to generate income over the remaining lifetime of the pensioner, protecting them from longevity and investment risk (and in some cases inflation risk too).  And the pensioner pays tax on their pension.

Well, of course they do.  Because a pension is just deferred income.  It allows a person to defer income from one part of their life to another.  This is generally seen to be A Good Thing because it means people don't have to work until they die.  And they don't pay tax on the deferred income because they do pay tax when they finally get to receive it as pension.  My tax 'subsidy' has absolutely nothing to do with the pension paid to a pensioner today, on which he/she does pay tax.  It's a fallacy to link the tax 'subsidy' to the pension in payment while simultaneously ignoring the tax paid on that pension.

Do we similarly seek to link other statutory tax concessions, handed down to us by the good grace of our Parliament, to other forms of benefit?  Has Ritchie devised his very own pernicious type of hypothecation abuse?

(Yes, I know I'm coming at this slightly late in the day, but I'm really really angry about it now)